The final three-race round in NASCAR‘s playoffs begins Sunday, November 1st when the green flag waives in the Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500 at Martinsville Speedway with eight drivers still on the Chase Grid.

Following last week’s race at Talladega the Chase field of drivers was cut in half as four drivers were eliminated from championship contention. Joey Logano grabbed the win last week to sweep all three races in the Contender Round while Kevin Harvick advanced with what many are calling a questionable finish to the race.

Kevin’s engine was about to as he said on the radio “blow up.” He was unable to accelerate to a speed much higher than the pace lap speed with the race going to a green-white-checkered finish under caution laps. The first attempt at a restart saw Kevin move his car up to the top of the race track to get out of the way of the field. An accident before the leader reached the start-finish line prompted NASCAR to rule that the race had not been re-started for the one attempt at a green-white-checkered finish.

The next attempt at a re-start saw Kevin plan to hold his line on the track to require the other cars to move around him to pass. He went into that re-start knowing that if another crash occurred at the re-start and he did not lose many positions he would advance in the Chase. If Kevin were to lose even a handful of positions on the track he would not advance. When the green flag waived and a car moved to the outside of Kevin to pass he moved up the track and caused that car to spin out and bring the caution flag out after the leader had passed the start-finish line ending the race and freezing the field in the order they were in.

That caution allowed Kevin to advance in the Chase. Many drivers feel that he caused that wreck on purpose to ensure he would advance to this round on the Chase Grid. Kevin maintains that he did not cause the wreck intentionally. NASCAR said they could not see or hear any evidence that the accident was caused intentionally so they would not issue any penalties to Kevin.

Now move forward a week to Martinsville Speedway as NASCAR goes “short trackin'” in the Chase. The track is a 0.526-mile track with 12 degrees of banking through the turns. Typically at Martinsville the drivers beat and bang on each other to get around the track. As the saying goes, racing at Martinsville means that fenders and tempers get bent. Drop the fact that at least a few drivers think that Kevin acted unfairly to advance in the Chase and you have to wonder if his car will have a huge target on it during this week’s race?

All the drivers will need to have a good handling car and plenty of power to accelerate out of the turns if they hope to have a chance to win the race no matter if they are on the Chase Grid or not. Performance in the pits will be key as well since any positions lost on pit road will be very difficult to make up on the track.

With that in mind let’s take a look at how the eight Chase Grid drivers have performed over their careers at Martinsville Speedway.

#1 – Joey Logano
0 wins, 4 top fives, 5 top tens
Driver rating: 88.0 (9th best)

#2 – Carl Edwards
0 wins, 1 top five, 5 top tens
Driver rating: 81.8 (14th best)

#3 – Jeff Gordon
8 wins, 28 top fives, 36 top tens
Driver rating: 119.1 (2nd best)

#4 – Kurt Busch
2 wins, 3 top fives, 5 top tens
Driver rating: 79.7 (15th best)

#5 – Brad Keselowski
0 wins, 2 top fives, 6 top tens
Driver rating: 86.3 (10th best)

#6 – Martin Truex Jr.
0 wins, 2 top fives, 5 top tens
Driver rating: 70.1 (20th best)

#7 – Kevin Harvick
1 win, 3 top fives, 13 top tens
Driver rating: 93.6 (8th best)

#8 – Kyle Busch
0 wins, 8 top fives, 9 top tens
Driver rating: 96.2 (6th best)

Among the Chase Grid drivers Jeff Gordon has to be considered a favorite to win this week and get an automatic advance to the Championship Race at Homestead. He is tied with the most wins at Martinsville among active drivers with Jimmie Johnson with eight each. Jeff’s driver rating at the track is also only bested by Jimmie (119.4 driver rating). That would also make Jimmie a favorite to be a spoiler as a non-contender winner Sunday.

Denny Hamlin (111.4 driver rating) is third best at the track among active drivers with five victories at Martinsville. In fact, Denny was the winner of the first race at Martinsville earlier this year in the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup season. He is one that questions Kevin’s actions at the end of last week’s race and was eliminated from the Chase as a result. He could be threat to win the race to make a statement this week. He is also a driver that could be zeroing in on Kevin during the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. was also eliminated from the Chase last week and is ranked fourth among active drivers at Martinville (99.5 driver rating). Dale is the defending winner of this race from 2014. He could grab his second win at the track as a non-Chase spoiler.

No other Chase Grid driver is in top five at Martinsville, but Kyle Busch (6th), Kevin Harvick (8th), Joey Logano (9th) and Brad Keselowski (10th) are in the top ten. One of these drivers could make the move up on the list and secure their spot in the Championship race by winning.

When it comes to NASCAR going short trackin’ at Martinsville the outcome can change quickly at any point of the race. A driver that looks to be dominant can find themselves in trouble and driver that didn’t appear to have a chance can find themselves in position to win that race in the blink of an eye.

Everything will unfold over 500 laps at Martinsville Speedway in the Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500 when NASCAR goes short trackin’ Sunday, November 1st starting at 12noon central time.

And by the way, remember that we “Fall Back” one hour for Daylight Saving Time Saturday night (October 31st) or you will be looking for the race an hour early Sunday.

By: Buck Stevens